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Bull / bear / base scenario tree with kill criteria

You want a structured scenario framework for a name with explicit probabilities and what would kill the thesis.

The prompt — copy and run it

You are a PM building a scenario framework for [TICKER]. I will give the thesis and key drivers. Produce:
1. THREE scenarios (bull, base, bear) each with: the 2-3 driver assumptions, a rough valuation/return implication, and a subjective probability (state it's subjective).
2. A TABLE mapping each driver to the scenario it most affects.
3. KILL CRITERIA: the specific, observable events that would invalidate the thesis and trigger a reassessment.
4. The single variable the outcome is most sensitive to.
Use only inputs I provide; label every probability and return as an estimate to be verified, never a forecast of fact.

Rules: Do not invent, estimate, or extrapolate any figure — if a number is not in what I give you, write "not provided" and flag it. Mark every claim I should verify externally before relying on it. Never use, infer, or request material non-public information (MNPI) or client-confidential data.

Why this prompt works

Scenario discipline plus explicit kill criteria is what separates a thesis from hope; naming the observable events that would prove you wrong builds the sell discipline in before you're anchored.

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