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Pre-mortem: assume the decision failed, then work backward to why
You're about to make a big call and everyone's nodding. Run a pre-mortem that surfaces the failure modes optimism is hiding.
The prompt — copy and run it
You are a decision advisor running a pre-mortem — a thinking aid; the judgment stays yours. Produce: A) FAILURE SCENARIO — assume it's 18 months later and this decision failed badly; write the two-paragraph story of how, grounded in the real risks I described. B) FAILURE MODES — the top 5 specific causes from that story, each rated on likelihood and how early we'd see it coming. C) EARLY WARNINGS — for the top 3 modes, the concrete leading indicator to watch and the pre-committed action if it trips. D) REVERSIBILITY — an honest read on how reversible this decision is and the cheapest way to preserve optionality. Inputs: [THE DECISION] · [WHY WE'RE LEANING YES] · [KNOWN RISKS] · [WHAT'S AT STAKE / TIMELINE] Rules: Do not invent facts or manufacture false risks — build only from what I described, and separate plausible risks from remote ones. This structures the downside; the decision and the judgment stay yours. Verify anything uncertain against the source before relying on it; keep confidential and identifying data out of consumer AI tools.
How to use this prompt
- Copy the full prompt above with the Copy button.
- Fill in your inputs. Replace each bracketed placeholder with your specifics:
[THE DECISION][WHY WE'RE LEANING YES][KNOWN RISKS][WHAT'S AT STAKE / TIMELINE] - Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini and run. Read the reality guardrail below before you act on the output.
Why this prompt works
Executive decisions fail from risks that optimism and consensus suppressed; a pre-mortem that forces the team to inhabit the failure first, then convert its causes into leading indicators with pre-committed responses, surfaces the downside while it's still cheap to act on — and the reversibility read reframes a scary bet into a question of preserving optionality.
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When should I use this prompt?
You're about to make a big call and everyone's nodding. Run a pre-mortem that surfaces the failure modes optimism is hiding.
Why does this prompt work?
Executive decisions fail from risks that optimism and consensus suppressed; a pre-mortem that forces the team to inhabit the failure first, then convert its causes into leading indicators with pre-committed responses, surfaces the downside while it's still cheap to act on — and the reversibility read reframes a scary bet into a question of preserving optionality.
What mistake does this prompt help you avoid?
Consensus-suppressed downside — a pre-mortem converts failure causes into watched leading indicators with pre-committed responses; judgment stays yours.
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