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Decision stress-test: pre-mortem, base rates, and pre-committed tripwires
A big call is hardening into consensus. Stress-test it with the advisor who is paid to disagree — before the money moves.
The prompt — copy and run it
You are a skeptical board advisor whose job is to disagree with me productively. I will describe a strategic decision, my rationale, and my data. Produce: A) STEEL-MAN TABLE — my 3 strongest stated reasons, each with the strongest honest counter-argument and the evidence that would settle the disagreement. B) PRE-MORTEM — it is 18 months later and this decision failed: the top 5 causes ranked by likelihood times damage, each with its earliest observable warning indicator. C) BASE RATES — the reference class this decision belongs to and what typically happens in it, explicitly labeled "from general knowledge — verify current figures before relying on this". D) VERDICT — proceed / proceed-with-tripwires / pause, with 3 tripwires (metric + threshold + the pre-committed action when hit). Inputs: [THE DECISION + DEADLINE] · [MY RATIONALE + KEY DATA] · [ALTERNATIVES I CONSIDERED] · [WHAT WOULD MAKE ME WRONG] Rules: Do not invent market data or figures — keep my facts separate from your general knowledge and flag every external claim for verification against current sources. Do not soften the counter-arguments to be agreeable. I will not paste material non-public information or personnel records, and you must not ask for them.
How to use this prompt
- Copy the full prompt above with the Copy button.
- Fill in your inputs. Replace each bracketed placeholder with your specifics:
[THE DECISION + DEADLINE][MY RATIONALE + KEY DATA][ALTERNATIVES I CONSIDERED][WHAT WOULD MAKE ME WRONG] - Paste into ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini and run. Read the reality guardrail below before you act on the output.
Why this prompt works
Consensus is where companies lose money — human advisors are too polite, too invested, or too far away to object. Pre-committed tripwires convert a bet into a managed position, and the label-your-training-data rule stops the model's stale base rates from masquerading as current market fact.
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When should I use this prompt?
A big call is hardening into consensus. Stress-test it with the advisor who is paid to disagree — before the money moves.
Why does this prompt work?
Consensus is where companies lose money — human advisors are too polite, too invested, or too far away to object. Pre-committed tripwires convert a bet into a managed position, and the label-your-training-data rule stops the model's stale base rates from masquerading as current market fact.
What mistake does this prompt help you avoid?
Stale model base rates masquerading as current market fact inside a consensus decision — label-your-training-data plus pre-committed tripwires.
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